Ukraine ... there is no more important country!
Ukraine ... There is no more important country!
The attention of the international community is focused on the war in Ukraine, which has turned into the most prominent event at the heart of international politics today. The dramatic transformation in Russian -Ukrainian relations is a pivotal matter for the questions of the media in many countries. How did the situation developed to this degree, and what is the reason for Russia's invasion of a sister country? The size of an article to consider does not allow enough detail in the history of relations between Russians and Ukrainians. In general, this is not the main thing now. It is believed that the Kremlin's decision was based on two decisive elements. The first, the Ukrainian side failed to comply with the Minsk agreements, and the constant bombing of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Russia and most of their Russian population, which Kyiv deals with as separatists. Security and cooperation in Europe and was approved in a special decision by the United Nations Security Council. The purpose of these documents was to resolve the armed conflict in the east of Ukrainian lands through the implementation of a "road map", which included, among other things, to hold free elections in the Donetsk regions Logansk. However, despite the ongoing attempts of Russian diplomacy to encourage the Ukrainians to comply with the Minsk agreements, which should eventually lead to granting the autonomy to the strong industrial area of Donbas (Donetsk regions and Logansk) within the framework of the Ukrainian state, Kyiv did not take any steps to make progress on implementing a map The agreed road. She continued to refuse to deal with the two popular leaders of Donetsk and Logansk, although their signatures were to prolong the Minsk agreements. At the same time, Kyiv categorically rejected the assistance in organizing the elections in Donbas, realizing that its results would be granted legitimacy to the forces loyal to Russia according to expectations. The western countries have withdrawn from the process, and did not want to exercise effective pressure on President Vodimir Zellinski. Moreover, the current Ukrainian president has repeatedly hinted that he is not subject to the Minsk agreements signed by his predecessor, "corrupt", Petro Poroshenko. This is in practice from a legal point of view. The second element, during the eight years in Donbas, as a result of the bombing of the Ukrainian army and the open armed clashes with local popular militias, was killed at least ten thousand of the population loyal to Russia. Observers of the Security and Cooperation Organization in Europe, and the two parties signed the agreements, Paris and Berlin, did not correctly evaluate this circumstance. It seemed that President Vladimir Putin has sufficient pretext to use force, to solve the problem and get out of the "vicious circle". At the same time, there was of course more than one scenario to use strength. But in the absence of transparency in the Russian political elite and the absence of a complete joint understanding of potential prospects, there was no consensus on the measures that Russia could take in Donbas. The evidence for this is the humiliating reprimand scene, which President Putin addressed to the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Narkekin, during the expanded meeting of the Russian Security Council on February 22. Either by some vote against the decision, or by the absence of a number of parliamentarians in the ruling party bloc, "Unified Russia", during the voting session in the State Duma on February 15. It was clear that the decision to confess would be followed by a strong work. According to a scenario - for understandable reasons - it has not been presented to the political elites in the country. Civilians are registering their joining the regional defense forces in Kyiv Saturday (AB)
initially, with the outbreak of military actions, the political propaganda of the Russian government focused on the need to protect the brothers in Donetsk and Logansk from the armed provocations of the “Ukrainian Nazis” among the Ukrainian armed forces. Although the statements about the “Nazis” are that the Nazis As a dominant factor in the current Ukrainian social and political life, it looks very strange; It cannot be ignored that both Volodimir Zellinski and his predecessor Petro Poroshenko are the sons of Jewish nationalism. Instead, the focus should have been on the extremist forms of Ukrainian nationalism, which in recent years have gained a clear trend against Russia, something that the West has successfully used. Therefore, such a formulation of the issue, and by directing the military operation against the Ukrainians exclusively on the borders of the Donetsk and Logansk Republics, The Kremlin's military scenario decision could have received a largely greater understanding, at least within Russian society. However, as they say in Russia, “Things have gone well.” Other motives have begun to control propaganda related to the military operation, about “undermining the Nazis” and “stripping Ukraine of weapons”, as well It is clear that refraining from joining NATO. Here it can be observed that the absolute majority of the Russians is the membership of our neighbor in NATO unacceptable from the point of view of the security of the Russian Federation. However, it turned out that the fighting of the Russian army extended to many areas in the (eastern) bank of Ukraine, including the capital and other large cities. And news about continuous, large -scale combat actions, full of many counterfeits. It is extremely difficult to form an objective opinion on the volume of battles and losses among the civilian population. There is one clear thing, the use of power has gained a clear excessive character, whether in size or geographical scope. I consider this a serious miscalculation by the Kremlin strategies. Moreover, given the current situation today, the Ukrainian armed forces continues to bomb on Donbas, despite the reports of the Russian military leadership about achieving field victories. Consequently, the main goal of the so -called special process to protect Donbas has not yet been achieved. The other thing is that it was found that the predictions that were placed about the potential reaction to the war, first and foremost, inside Russia, then of course around the world, were not correct. Not. It is clear who participated in putting these predictions. I start from the conviction that it is the presidency. It is true that, in light of any scenario, a new package could be expected from the sanctions coming from the West, but it may differ in the size of the consequences on the economy, and the most important thing is the repercussions on the image of Russia in the world. President Putin's positions in our country, which seemed to many, have not been shaken, for a strong blow. The Russian stock market (more than 40 percent decreased) collapsed, the stock exchange collapsed, the dollar and the euro rose sharply (about 10 percent), and about 75 percent of the country's financial market under sanctions. The first figures in the country underwent the restrictions of the penalties. These are only the results of the military decision that we see today. The list of negative results can be prolonged and prolonged. By the way, here it is possible to draw attention to the fact that the Kremlin's bet on receiving effective support from China has not been achieved. Also, within the framework of potential results at the geopolitical level, is not completely understandable, why did the Kremlin advisors team not put in its accounts The possibility of Finland to join NATO, a step that seems completely possible, especially since the parliamentary decision in this regard was already taken in Helsinki. Perhaps this is followed by the accession of Sweden. One of the subsequent repercussions, it is possible to expect to ban the export of many biological techniques and industrial goods to Russia, discrimination in the field of culture, sports, etc., and all this for an unlimited period. In addition to all of this, many anti -war protests in Moscow, San Petersburg and other major Russian cities have emerged. I see only one positive result: strict sanctions may convince Russian leadership to radically amend their economic policies. And stop relying on the associated oligarchy closer, very closely, in the West, and the implementation of radical reforms that serve the national interest - of course, without giving up international cooperation. As of today, the main thing is to stop bloodshed, and to abandon plans - the maximum - regarding With our neighbor, and these plans are only known to the Kremlin. On the days of the collapse of the Soviet Union, I was an officer, I was studying in one of the military academies. My army companion, Dmitry Treenin, who is currently the director of the Moscow Center of the Carnegie Foundation, published at the time in the popular magazine "Novoy Freimia" an article entitled "Ukraine: No country is more important." Despite the fact that I do not share the political opinions of Dimitri and his colleagues in the fund, I believe that such an approach to Ukrainian issues is more important today than ever. A retired colonel. A former diplomat
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