The Arab Maghreb and the problem of shifting from a subject to a regional and international actor (*) - CAUS - Center for Arab Unity Studies

Introduction:

The wave of the Arab movement at the beginning of 2011 caused the reconfiguration of a new political geography, as well as raising a lot of anxiety in the West and elsewhere. Against the background of the presence of the great powers, it can be said that there is a redistribution of power in One of the most sought after in the world, as the emergence of new regional players, everywhere it is expressed, to rebuild the relationship between the Maghreb and its traditional partners also re-launch all questions about the future of the geopolitical order. With the landing of November 24, 1942, the Americans quickly discovered a strategic interest towards the Maghreb region, in the context of the Cold War. American strategists saw the Maghreb as a sub-system of the large Mediterranean regional system that represented the non-European (Asian and African) part of a peripheral region. It was a bone of contention between the two great powers.

Thinking in the Maghreb about how to deal with new geopolitical challenges has evolved more and more in the past years, as recent developments have helped change the perception of Maghreb powers. And in search of a regional role, regardless of the transformations that took place in the Maghreb region, the years that passed were marked by the rise in the strength of regional powers. Accordingly, understanding the geopolitical issues of the future makes us indispensable for a comprehensive analysis of the regional ambitions of countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran.

Accordingly, the problem raised is as follows: How can the Maghreb region move from being a subject of Western projects that target it to being an active and pivotal party capable of bringing about change that goes along with its goals and interests?

First: The Maghreb Confronting External Ambitions: Cooperation Is The Best Option

The opportunities provided by the new geopolitical situation (the decline of traditional powers and the emergence of new regional powers) protect the new elites in the Maghreb from the risk of dependence, completely Or, in part, on actors with historical influence in the region, and the new leaders of the Maghreb will in fact be in a position of strength to break away from overcoming collapsed regimes and renegotiate past alliances on new bases^[2]. In the Maghreb countries that are going through a transitional phase, the new elites have room for maneuver to reorient their foreign relations, as they benefit from a large capital of sympathy and legitimacy (democratic, revolutionary), as well as from their presence in the stage of embarking on the democratic path, and here these governments will not be subject to pressures and conditions. Great powers.

The Maghreb region emerges as one of the important geopolitical spaces, which has begun to witness a growing dynamic towards interactions due to its local specificities and its position in the orbit of international competition between world powers. It would be good for the security partnership between the Maghreb countries to focus on facing security challenges based on cooperative security measures and building confidence between the units of the cooperative process. On the crystallization of a consensus among his countries on the need for cooperation between them to reduce violence and promote stability and peace in the region by activating various forms of agreements such as formal security treaties, joint work agreements, etc. ^[3]

What is noticeable in the Maghreb case is that with regard to the security situation in it, the Maghreb countries resorted to adopting the option of direct bilateral interaction in order to face the current security challenges, despite the state of confusion and ambiguity that characterizes the behaviors and positions of some countries regarding dealing with the existing security situation. As well as the extent of its ability to adapt to the risks and emergency conditions produced by new threats that go beyond the national borders of one country^[4]. Here, it is possible to cite the extensive visits and activities of Moroccan officials among themselves, with the aim of activating bilateral work and finding coordination mechanisms:

- With regard to Tunisia: The head of the interim government, Yaji Caid Essebsi, visited Algeria on March 15, 2011, then Rashid Ghannouchi, leader of the Tunisian Ennahda Movement, on November 20, 2011, followed by other visits that ended with the announcement of the Minister of Maghreb Affairs and the African Union. And the League of Arab States Algerian Abdelkader Messahel announced in March 2017 in Algeria the signing of 7 agreements between Algeria and Tunisia related to various fields of cooperation, including security cooperation and the control of maritime borders between the two countries.

- Regarding Morocco: Despite the state of stagnation that Algerian-Moroccan relations have known for a very long period of time, recent years have shown a new movement, a movement that is trying to revive relations through entrances in which the two parties participate, and the recent developments push the two sides together. To the need for joint coordination to confront and deal with it. Here, reference can be made to the visit of the Moroccan Minister of Foreign Relations, Saad Eddine El Othmani, to Algeria on January 22, 2012, a visit that paved the way for high-level coordination between the two parties. In the form of a declared real partnership or strategy.

Within the same aspect of Maghreb relations, there have been extensive mutual coordination visits between the Kingdom of Morocco and Tunisia, and even Libya. For example, the President of the Libyan National Congress visited Tunisia in November 2012, and then the Tunisian Prime Minister visited Libya in January. January 2013, all of which focused on border security coordination, as well as combating terrorism and others.

In light of the current developments, the countries of the Maghreb must move in their relations from a conflict-polarization pattern to activating opportunities for integration and cooperation in a way that enables the region to move from being a subject to an active party in drawing up initiatives in the region. All of this will happen only through those countries realizing the inevitability of moving towards unifying visions and efforts, which will not be close and fruitful unless they are translated into collective action that includes a well-defined strategy. In the same context, it is possible to propose relying on activating the following elements:

- Establishing a Maghreb Security Council, entrusted with the main tasks in the Maghreb security system, although the details of the composition of this council, even the voting system in it and the limits of its powers and competencies, are matters that need studies^[5]. However, this must be in order to enhance the ability of rapid reaction and constructive interaction between the Maghreb countries in order to take the appropriate decision.

- It is also possible to go towards the establishment of a security framework concerned with discussing and dealing with security issues, consisting mainly of authorities and military officials, experts in security and defense issues, in addition to expanding the framework to include researchers from universities and research centers, which will allow expanding visions about Security issues and make the most of diverse experiences.

Second: The Arab Maghreb Union is a gateway to becoming an active party

Unlike other Arab regional groupings, regional awareness of the unity of the Maghreb began to crystallize within the framework of the Maghreb national movements since the beginning of the twentieth century when the concept of the Maghreb began to take shape politically. The liberation movements in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco have been stressing the post-independence Maghreb dimension. Here, the existing bloc represented by the Arab Maghreb Union can represent an important entry point for the transformation of the Arab Maghreb from a subject into a key actor in the existing security arrangements in the Maghreb and Mediterranean space^[6].

The Arab Maghreb Union was established on February 17, 1989 in Marrakesh, following a treaty signed by the five member states (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania and Tunisia). This treaty was the result of the previous meeting held by the five Maghreb leaders in Zeralda on June 10, 1988. Since Only 6 agreements were ratified at that time, and some of the ratified agreements are so far mired in the new international or regional frameworks that the Maghreb countries have joined, such as the World Trade Organization or the European Union.

It is noted that the general provisions of the Arab Maghreb Union Agreement reflect a pragmatic printed design that is not without obstacles^[7]. By preserving state sovereignty intact, the Marrakesh Treaty limits the potential for creating an effective unitary space, since the Presidency Council, made up of the five heads of state, the sole decision-making body of the AMU, is bound by the law of consensus. The founders of the Arab Maghreb Union did not want to create institutions that might escape their control, and here integration would be premature for them, as they preferred to maintain their power to control the conflict and move slowly by creating organizations whose limited skills could be expanded as they went. However, this union of the Maghreb cannot be permanent unless there are objective elements, independent of the whims of the leaders in a way that guarantees its strength^[8].

It was natural for the countries of the Maghreb, after gaining their independence, to work on building their political and administrative institutions, as well as trying to establish an industrial base in order to perpetuate the principle of sovereignty over their soil, or in other words, relying on the country approach and disregarding the regional construction despite Some of them are confirmed in all constitutions and charters as an integral part of the Arab Maghreb. Rather, some believe that it was natural for confrontation with colonialism and interaction with it to lead to the near and direct goal of independence being to restore the state and rebuild it on a Qatari base^[9]. On the other hand, it can also be said that the deterioration of the ability of the ruling elites in the Maghreb countries to impose their control over society, and the vulnerability of their legitimacy as a result of a series of accumulated and overlapping reasons, the most important of which is the failure of the national project on which its legitimacy was based. These peoples have their governments since independence.

Among the main internal challenges facing the Arab Maghreb Union, we find:

Political competition: Political competition is established in the Maghreb countries on two levels: at the individual level and at the state level. Rivalry can be observed at the individual level among state leaders who see their counterparts in other countries overlooked in the Arab Maghreb Union, however, competition for leadership exists between certain countries such as Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. While Mauritania is absent from this competition, perhaps due to the country's weak economic position compared to others in the region.

- Absence of will: The absence of a strong will of the heads of state in shaping the position of the secretariat and the function of the Secretary-General, as the leaders of the Arab Maghreb Union have weak commitments towards the establishment of the Union, for example, the Arab Maghreb Union, since its founding, has not had a Secretary-General. authority to direct the union.

- Security concern: One of the main points of the Marrakesh Treaty is not to take sides in the internal affairs of each country and not to allow any activity that threatens the security or sovereignty of any member state. Here, the treaty assumed that any hostile act against any member state would be considered a hostile act against all member states, and is absolutely inconsistent with internal affairs. Support is considered a duty, and cooperation is a clear commitment between member states.

- Competition between countries The level of competition between countries has become mature among the countries of the Maghreb, and in particular, the remarkable rivalry between Algeria and Morocco is perhaps more explicit than any other competition of countries in the region.

Third: Expanding the network of Maghreb interactions with the new powers

It can be said that there are five major international poles, namely the United States of America, Russia, China, Japan and the European Union. It is not expected that these poles will possess equal weights of power and influence at the present time, but they will be of varying strength and also variable according to several factors, perhaps the most prominent of which is that the United States of America, for example, is still the first power in the world in terms of military, and China still ranks third in the world as a power Military after the United States and Russia, and its endeavor to expand its influence and military presence in the South China Sea is one of the most important factors that aroused the concern of the United States and its regional allies such as Japan and the Philippines^[10].

On the other hand, it is also possible to refer to the return of the traditional forces and their involvement in the crises of the Maghreb region, in addition to the escalation of the balance of the Maghreb partnership with the emerging powers in the image of China, as well as the increasing integration of Russia in the region, all of this can represent a positive factor for the countries The Arab Maghreb, as it pushes for the establishment of a more balanced network of relations, and it can also give it the opportunity to establish more profitable relations.

The re-engagement of the traditional forces in the crises of the Maghreb region can be explained in the context of various considerations, the most important of which are the following^[11]:

1 - The direct repercussions of these crises reached the borders of those countries, as European countries, for example, began to face a set of internal pressures, due to the spillover of the repercussions of regional crises into their territories, through two levels: the first is the increase in the intensity of the flow of refugees and illegal immigrants from Maghreb region to European countries. The second is the escalation in the number of terrorist operations carried out by groups affiliated with terrorist organizations.

2 - The realization by some forces that non-interference in some crises contributed to their exacerbation and transmission to other countries. Perhaps this seems clear in the Russian case, the latter of which saw that it had fallen victim to deception by Western countries, when it agreed to Security Council Resolution No. (1973). ) on the Libyan crisis and opened the door wide for NATO intervention there.

3 - The decline in the role of the United States of America and its gradual withdrawal from crisis areas. Perhaps this matter constituted one of the most important features of American foreign policy during the era of the administration of former US President Barack Obama and even during the term of current President Donald Trump.

Conclusion

Can the Maghreb countries transform from the weakest link in the regional and international equation into an active party in confronting a three-power alliance: the European Union; United States of America; And rising powers? In fact, given the general geopolitical reality in the region, the countries of the Maghreb are unable to overcome their contradictions and differences, as although they have all the means to bring about a unified movement, but with their dispersed and selfish behavior that overwhelms their sovereign approach, they have encouraged the emergence of competition among them. . In addition, the state of weakness on the political side, which produced weak democracies, made these countries search for their legitimacy abroad, and this alone is perhaps a sufficient factor to cause rift and conflict at the internal level, which leads, directly or indirectly, to their inability to take advantage of opportunities. that the union can provide. What is certain is that this status quo greatly serves other powers interested in the region and its interests.

Because of the competition, the countries of the Maghreb could not collectively benefit from the opportunity provided by the dual interest of the United States and Europe in the Maghreb, since the few subsidies that the Maghreb can derive separately from its “loyalty” to either side, do not represent anything Faced with the impotence of non-Maghreb countries, it is torn between the classical European model and the new American model, as it has rarely been able to adopt coordinated positions towards its interlocutors from across the Mediterranean and across the Atlantic. The latter does not ask for much, because by approaching the countries of the Maghreb individually, it is easier for them to serve their own interests and control the region. These difficulties in appearing as a single unit make it necessary to add that the countries of the Maghreb have to confront the rejectionist public opinion in general. of American foreign policy.

Such a scenario, which may seem fanciful today, will open up better terms for Maghreb countries to cooperate with the European Union, the United States, NATO, or even the rising powers. But this is still conditional, on the one hand, on a real mobilization of the five countries that must unite and overcome their differences by focusing on the unifying factors, and on the other hand, on the position of the other poles regarding the Maghreb dream and the issue of the Western Sahara. Under these circumstances, the Maghreb can claim to be playing the big game.

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