America is loving strict measures to monitor Russia's exports

The administration of US President Joe Biden threatens to use new controls on exports to harm the Russian strategic industries, from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to civil air space, if Moscow invades Ukraine, according to US administration officials said.Officials told the Washington Post that the administration may also decide to implement monitoring on a larger scale in a way that may deprive Russian citizens of some smartphones, tablets and video game devices.

Such movements would expand the scope of US sanctions beyond the financial targets to spread a weapon only once before, to paralyze the Chinese technology giant "Huawei", arms shares, known as the base of the direct foreign product, in the suffering of "Huawei" for the first time everDecreased annual revenues, which is an amazing collapse of about 30 in the past 100 years.

The attractiveness of the use of the direct foreign product base stems from the fact that almost any electronic thing these days includes semiconductors, which are the small components on which modern technologies depend, from smartphones to aircraft to quantum computers, and that there is hardly almost a conductor on this planet has not beenIt is made with American tools or designed with American programs.The administration can try to force companies in other countries to stop exporting these types of goods to Russia through this rule."This is a slow suffocation by the US government," said Dan Wang, a technology analyst in the research company, "Dragonomx", and the company has cut off the company from the required precise chips, which was manufactured outside the United States, but using programs orAmerican tools.

An American head to stop the flow of decisive ingredients in industries

Washington officials now say they are working with European and Asian allies to formulate a copy of the base aimed at stopping the flow of decisive ingredients to the industries that Russian President Vladimir Putin aspires, such as civil and sea aviation and high technology.."The strength of this export control is that we can weaken and cause the ability of these sectors to become a major source of growth of the Russian economy," said a senior official in the administration of President Joe Biden, who refused to reveal his identity to the newspaper regarding internal discussions in this case..

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs ordered the departure of all members of the American embassy employees working in Kyiv, on the pretext of "threatening Russian military action".Officials said that the evacuation comes at a time when the Biden administration weighs the sending of thousands of American forces, as well as weapons to the Baltic countries and Poland to strengthen "NATO", and the officials stressed that no final decision was taken regarding the deployment of possible forces, which were reported for the first timeBy the New York Times, while the United States does not plan to send any additional forces to Ukraine, at a time when there are about 200 military trainers in Ukraine, most of them are members of the National Guard in Florida.

America, export controls and opposite winds

The efforts made to use export controls may face strong winds opposite the American and European commercial interests that are afraid that the use of export controls will lead to Russian revenge in other areas, and in the end, foreign companies are pushing to seek to design American technology from their products, because extending the base beyondOne company like "Huawei" to an entire country or entire sectors of the state is unprecedented.

Robert D said.Atkinson, head of the Information and Innovation Foundation, is an intellectual institution, "It is like magical power, you can only use it many times before you start to deteriorate.".He added, "Other countries will say, the United States has full control for us, it is better to find alternatives.".

Analysts say that Russia is at risk because it does not produce consumer electronics or chips in large quantities, in particular, and does not make semiconductors for advanced computing, a region dominated by Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, Europe and Japan.

Will Hunt, an analyst at the Emerging Security and Technology Center at Georgetown University, said that cutting the imports of chips in the country "will always harm the aspirations of the high technology of Russian leadership, whether in artificial intelligence or quantum computing (a means that depends on the principles of quantum mechanics and its phenomena).

Officials said that the administration has not yet decided whether to monitor exports to the strategic sectors or expand them to include daily devices, and in both cases, Paul Triolo, head of technological policy in the "Eurasia" group, said, "This will be an arms of the chain of supplying the American conductorsAgainst an entire country ".

Complete financial penalties for exports

ومن شأن Complete financial penalties for exports أن يلحق الضرر على الفور بالدول، ويقول الخبراء إن تأثير العقوبات المالية، التي يمكن أن تنطبق على أكبر البنوك في روسيا، وكذلك على شركات الطيران المدني والبحرية وشركات التكنولوجيا الناشئة، قد يكون محسوساً أولاً.They say that banking sanctions in particular are likely to lead to an increase in Russian inflation and lead to a reduction in the value of the ruble, on the other hand, the export controls accumulate over time, as the cumulative impact of companies whose sales of Russia began to damage industrial production.

"If the goal is to impose exorbitant and exhausting costs on the Russian economy, the set of sanctions imposed on major Russian banks and exports control will be a long way towards that, certainly," said Kevin Wolf, a former senior official at the US Department of Commerce, who heads export controls..Analysts said that if the restrictions are widely applied, it may also lead to raising the prices of consumer electronics in Russia.

An American ban on Russia is similar to Iran, Korea and Syria

The US administration says it may also hit Russia with a ban on a similar export of the ban imposed on Iran, Cuba, Syria and North Korea, and experts say that such a ban may apply to basic electronics, aircraft spare parts, wireless and wireless communication elements, and software, but the United States exports relatively little.In this field to Russia, so this procedure will have a limited impact unless other countries impose a similar banner.A German embassy official said that Germany, which is the largest commercial partner for Russia in Western Europe and relies heavily on Russian energy, is conducting close discussions with the United States on sanctions, and refused to give more details.

The targeted use of the direct foreign product base may be a blow to the Russian army, which depends on a type of chips called "Elbrus" was designed in Russia, but it was manufactured in Taiwan by Taiwan for the semiconductor industry limited, "TSSMC, according to Costas Tigkos, electronics expert at the Guinness Group, a UK company that provides defensive intelligence information.

If the United States prevented the "Taiwan" company for the semiconductor industry, limited from supplying these chips to Russia, because it has successfully prevented the Taiwanese company from providing "Huawei" from these chips, then this will be a "devastating effect", Tigakus said, and in a statement, the company saidTaiwanese "complies with all the laws and regulations in force", and it has "a strict export monitoring system to ensure the followers of exports control".

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Analysts say that Western multinationals will probably comply with export controls, and all chip makers in the United States include items in their contracts that require customers to adhere to the American export rules, and the United States also has a strong stick to force them to comply, as they can put any companies outsideThe law is on the list of entities of the Ministry of Commerce, which is a black list of types that actually prevent American companies from selling their technology, and the Russian government officials, from their part, reduced the importance of the potential impact.

The Russian -owned Russian Defense and Technology Industry Group "Rostic" said in a statement that while some foreign components are used in civil products, Russia has begun to make many components alone.."The possibility of imposing additional sanctions will mainly harm the interests of American companies working in the field of export", "but we have succeeded, and we will manage our matter again, if not immediately, but very quickly, we have proven that more than once.".

China will provide an escape valve for Russia

Analysts say China can also provide an escape valve for Russia, as China is a great resource for electronics to Russia.In 2020, about 70 percent of Russia's imports of computers and smartphones, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economy, represented three of the five best brands for smartphones in Russia are Chinese brands, according to the market research company "International Data Corporation".

Liu Bingio, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, indicated that Beijing will not look gently on the control of the United States outside the regional borders..He said in a statement, "China is always unilateral sanctions for any country and the so -called long -term judicial jurisdiction over other countries on the basis of local law.".

Simon Baker, an analyst for IDC, pointed out that Chinese manufacturers can choose to continue selling to Russia even if they use American technology in their products, and it will be difficult, for example, to monitor Chinese smartphone sales to Russia, however,Experts said that there are ways to control non -compliance, and the US Department of Commerce often gets advice from companies about competitors that violate the rules, and their investigators are examining shipping data, and they also get intelligence information from other American agencies.

If the Chinese companies end up providing Russia with a violation of the base, this would leave Washington a major diplomatic dilemma in relation to whether it will punish them, even if they are making ordinary goods, not military.

After the administration of former US President Donald Trump applied the base of foreign direct products to Huawei in August 2020, the company's smartphone sales declined, and earlier in 2020, when the Chinese giant had led the world in such sales,Today, I fell to the tenth place, according to "International Data".

Officials and analysts said that the most important goal now is to deter, and this means the threat of the most severe sanctions, such as the separation of the largest Russian banks from the American financial system, said Edward Fishman, assistant colleague at the new US Security Center, a former official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the administration of President Barack Obama, saidThe export controls will not have an immediate effect, but he said it is a good step.He added, "There is no interest in the United States in helping Russia's technological and industrial ability, as long as Putin uses it to bully on neighbors and attack democracy.".