Addis Standard: Can Ethiopia survive Trump's threats?

Two Ethiopian researchers have strongly criticized US President Donald Trump's statements, in which he warned that Egypt might have to blow up the Renaissance Dam that Addis Ababa is building near its border with Sudan.

Degen Yaman Mesili and Johannes Enyo Ayalew, researchers in public international law, said that Trump's remarks, while "hurtful", were "not unexpected".

The two researchers believe, in a joint article published by them in the Ethiopian newspaper "Addis Standard", that these statements seem to summarize statements and speeches that have been issued by Washington since the United States became involved in the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Trump's warning - which the article describes as beating the drums of war - caused an uproar in Ethiopia, and it also constitutes a breach of international law, according to the researchers Miceli and Ayalew.

The US President had talked about the dispute over the Renaissance Dam - during a phone call - with the leaders of Sudan and Israel last Friday, and about the normalization of relations between the two sides.

You can't blame Egypt for being a little upset," Trump said. "It is a very dangerous situation because Egypt will not be able to live in this way," he added. "They will end up blowing up the dam. I said it and I say it loud and clear: They will blow up this dam."

For his part, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed denounced what he described as threats and abuses of his country's sovereignty.

Controversial Trump

Negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia regarding the Renaissance Dam have stalled over the past years, amid mutual accusations between Cairo and Addis Ababa of intransigence and the desire to impose unrealistic solutions.

Addis Ababa insists on filling the dam even if it does not reach an agreement with Cairo and Khartoum, while the latter two insist on the need to first reach a tripartite agreement regarding the dam located on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile.

According to the Addis Standard article, Trump - whose first presidential term is about to end - has become a threat to the principle of pluralism and the world order. He is also blamed for his "populism both at home and abroad".

And his stances on foreign policy issues show his controversial presidential tendencies. Trump's critics do not hesitate to blame him for all the evils happening in America, as the two legal scholars put it.

The authors consider that the deadly Corona virus, hurricanes, forest fires, racially motivated incidents and courts challenging the eligibility of the president are the weakness of the Trump administration.

A shameful act

The authors believe that Ethiopia has a sovereign right to build a dam on its natural water resources, and it is a sovereignty that government institutions may exercise within the state.

The authors of the article quoted articles from the Charter of the United Nations and international laws in strengthening the arguments of the Ethiopian state in building the Renaissance Dam, and indicated that according to these evidences, countries are equal not only in the eyes of the world order based on the charter of the international organization, but also according to the traditional concept of international law . On the other hand, "Ethiopia is a country with a history that preserved its civilizations from foreign domination and successfully defended its sovereignty from the colonial yoke. It is a founding member of the (former) League of Nations and the (current) United Nations."

According to the article, Trump's statements regarding the Renaissance Dam violate the purpose for which the United Nations Charter was drafted. And his saying that Egypt will blow up the dam is "a flagrant violation of Article 2 (4) of the Charter, and Article 8 of the United Nations General Assembly resolution that staves off the tendency of hegemony, which in turn undermines the territorial integrity of Ethiopia."

Then, "his sharp expressions are disgraceful behavior and an unfortunate position on the part of the President of the United States - the leading permanent member of the UN Security Council, who is supposed to be a maker of international peace and security - and reflects incitement to aggression against Ethiopia."

Dire consequences

In their joint article, Degen Mesili and Yohannes Ayalew advise the Ethiopian government to take Trump's warning seriously, as his statements may be the tip of the iceberg. From this standpoint, "the Ethiopian government, in particular, must work to properly put an end to human rights violations in the country, and disarm the armed parties as long as they are still unruly and active in the Benishangul-Gumuz region, where the dam is being built."

This is because engaging in an international armed conflict at such a time is not likely, and is not feasible for Egypt, "which may help and support (Ethiopian) armed parties, as it has always done."

If Egypt were to attack the Renaissance Dam - as the two authors say - the floods would destroy all of Sudan, which would result in the catastrophic loss of civilian lives, especially since the dam's reservoir is already filled with 4.9 billion cubic meters of water.

In a threatening tone, the article stated that if Egypt managed to blow up the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia might eventually have to take what the authors called “serious countermeasures justified under international law, including targeting the Aswan High Dam.” ".

Assuming that Ethiopia had to launch a counter-attack and blow up the Aswan High Dam, "the impact on civilians would be catastrophic."

Regardless of Egypt's economic strength, Ethiopia remains an indomitable force in the arenas of turmoil, and history is a witness to this, according to the authors of the article.

Scenario of Survival

In this regard, the authors indicated that Egypt fought two wars with Ethiopia, the first was the Battle of Gundt in 1875. The second was near the city of Ghor in Eritrea in 1876, and the victory in both of them was the Ethiopian side. The two battles took place after the Egyptians tried to control the headwaters of the Blue Nile.

In their joint article, Degen Miceli and Johannes Ayalew do not rule out the possibility of attacks on the Renaissance Dam, but they hope that this scenario will not happen "as Trump desires," as they put it.

The researchers concluded that if the Ethiopian government continues its "strict stance towards the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and addresses its internal problems, the country will be able to withstand Trump's threat, and it will not acquiesce in any form of neo-colonialism."