Qais Saeed's coup does not herald a happy ending

When I published the report that talked about that advisers close to Tunisian President Kais Saied were urging him to tighten his grip on Tunisia through a "constitutional coup", it was said at the time; The plan, the details of which we published, was false. At that time, panic spread inside the presidential palace, and the search began for the source who leaked the plan, which sealed each of its pages with the phrase "very secret." Four days later, the president himself admitted that the letter was true, but claimed that it was only one of hundreds of letters he received in the mail bag each day. It is true that the publication of the plan delayed the execution of the coup, but it did not prevent it. After two months, Saeed closed parliament, seized the executive power, and tried to appoint himself a public prosecutor. At the time, Prime Minister Hicham al-Mashishi was beaten to force him to resign, but the main target of Kais Saied, Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi, escaped the window, as he had just been released from the hospital where he was receiving treatment. The Tunisian media drummed for the coup and roared in support, and applauds for Qais Said were people like the couple who founded and headed the Democratic Current Party, the faction that split from the party that supported Moncef Marzouki as president, in the power deal with Ennahda. From an “inspiring savior” to a dictator, Mohammed Abbou, the founder of the Democratic Current, was the first to suggest to Qais Saeed activating Article 80 of the constitution, which allows him to seize power, and described Abbou Saeed at the time as the inspiring saviour. As for his wife, Samia Abbou, who is herself a member of parliament, she described Tunisia as a pseudo-democracy ruled by "gangs of thieves". It was on the same Sunday night that the coup took place. Somaya Bakis Saied documented when he claimed that the closure of Parliament would be temporary, and her plan was to reopen it and it was completely evacuated from its largest party, the Ennahda Movement. Within a month, the couple had no hope for Qais Saeed, and then they realized what he was going to do, and they were outraged until their anger crossed all limits. In an interview with Jawhara FM radio, Somaya Abbou said: "Qais Said will condemn Tunisia and future generations to live the same system of ruin and corruption for decades... We do not want the state of Qais Said, but we want the rule of law." It was a bit late. Mahmoud Abbou, himself a lawyer, filed a complaint with the Public Prosecutor of the Court of First Instance in Tunis against the country's President Kais Saied, calling for his arrest. In his lawsuit, Abbou claimed that Qais Saeed had committed Article 80 in order to achieve his "old ambition", and that he was acting "through the revolutionary behavior through which he wanted to rely on the force of arms outside the legitimacy." All this is true, but - again - this realization came too late. The same fate awaits Nadia Okasha, who was once the most powerful woman in Tunisia, as Qais Said would not cut an order or go to a place without her, as she was the veil of his palace, and the channel through which all transactions were carried out. And Okasha is the person to whom the coup message was directed, although in fact she is the mastermind of it. Okasha resigned last week, citing “material differences.” It was implied that she and Qais Saeed disagreed over a decision to retire six senior security officials, including a former intelligence chief, against their will. But it is not excluded that the reason is the competition for influence with the wife of Qais Saeed Ichraf and his brother Nofal, who quickly became an unofficial presidential spokesman. The Kais Saied dictatorship has become a family affair. The Western Judges' Tale Finally, but certainly not least, comes the question of the judges. Since all those involved in this strange tale are legal professionals, it is not surprising that the next goal of Said's "jihad" is justice. Many Tunisians express their distaste for senior judges; Because they did not do what it takes to pursue the killers of two secular leftist leaders, Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahimi. Belaid's widow continued to claim that the Islamist-led government encouraged political violence, and millions of protesters had taken to the streets to express their anger at her husband's death, creating the worst political crisis Ennahda has faced. Although the political logic of these assassinations points towards forces seeking to destabilize the government at the expense of Ennahda, and although the killings stopped only when Ennahda relinquished power, Tunisia’s Islamists are still accused of being behind the assassinations.

Citing popular sentiment, Said announced plans to dissolve the Supreme Judicial Council, an elected independent entity that appoints judges and organizes the work of the judiciary. Judges were accused of bias, corruption, and delaying politically sensitive investigations. Following the global condemnation and the threat to organize a two-day strike, Saeed gave the impression that he intended to reverse his decision, claiming that he would change the law governing the Supreme Judicial Council, and that he would appoint a temporary entity in its place. legal. Saeed did not bother to keep his plans secret. He sees in himself the final expression of the will of the people, which means that all state institutions must obey him and follow his directives. He said while he was in a state of anger; "The judiciary is a function in the first place, and authority and sovereignty belong to the people, and everything else is functions and it is not permissible to turn into an authority independent of the state. Decisions are issued in the name of the Tunisian people, and the judiciary is a function and not an independent authority."

And it became crystal clear what is going on. Sisi Tunisia Said is doing in Tunisia what Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is doing in Egypt, both of which use popular discontent with the government led by Islamists or participated in it, to create a coup that annihilates even the liberals who helped them seize power. Islamists are not innocent; They sat in Parliament for ten years, fighting political battles, while the economy was in a state of constant decline; While they were seeking to secure democratic institutions, they neglected to follow what was happening in the country. They said they were not responsible for what the government did, but at the same time they did not play the role of the opposition; They were neither completely at home nor completely abroad, and Tunisia's Islamists did not stop making concessions, which made them lose contact with the people who came out in their millions in support of them. That opened the door wide for the populist dictator. There is no doubt that popular discontent with the old parliament was real, but the alliance cannot lie in the emergence of another Gaddafi in North Africa. If Saeed was attacking the same people who rode on their backs to reach absolute rule, Sisi did the same before, getting rid of two high-ranking generals, although they helped him seize power and tighten his grip on it, namely Muhammad Hegazy, head of Military Intelligence, And Sedqi Sobhi, Minister of Defense in his government. Everyone underestimated the extent of Sisi's willingness to engage in violence, including his former director, Sami Anan, who was chief of staff of the army and was about to run in the presidential elections as a challenger to him, and Ahmed Shafik, the former prime minister, was also among them. The same applies to Qais Saeed, whose situation is constantly miscalculated. However, Saied is gradually losing popularity while the economy is declining in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions imposed on tourism, until GDP contracted by 9.18 percent in 2020, and it is becoming difficult for the treasury to provide salaries for workers in the huge Tunisian public sector. Meanwhile, private debt is rising sharply. In its latest report, the International Crisis Group says: “In the short to medium term, Tunisia may be forced to either restructure its public debt – which would require jumping into the hoops of the Paris Club (the informal group of creditor countries seeking to solve debtor countries' insolvency problems) or declaring bankruptcy.In both cases, the social and economic repercussions will be very painful.A multi-billion dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund is delayed, while the State Department and Congress in the United States are either withholding financial aid or threatening to reduce its size.And all of this has its effects that find its reflection on opinion. general.

What's Next? A recent opinion poll indicated that 70.6 percent fear for the future of freedom and democracy, compared to 29.4 percent who do not share that fear. Also, 67.3 percent oppose the president's decisions, while 29.4 percent do not oppose them. In August 2021, 60.8 percent of those surveyed said; They thought that what happened was a "correction of the course of the revolution", while 39.2 percent said it was a coup. But by January 2022, those attitudes were reversed, and now 64.8 percent believe it was a coup, while 35.2 percent believe it was a correction of the revolution's course. The mood changed and changed, the euphoria that prevailed when Said came to power dissipated. What will Kais Saied do anymore when he has crushed the independent judiciary? If I were to guess, I would expect him to ban political parties, and he might start the Ennahda movement, but rest assured that within a short time, he will not be spared the wickedness of one party. This too should come as no surprise to anyone; He had previously stated that the era of parties had ended, and had even said that long before his accession to the presidency. Three factors supported him and were of help to him. There is the virus of the counter-revolution that is freely raging throughout Tunisia and infecting the army and security services that were once neutral; Had it not been for its complicity, Qais Saeed would not have been able to take the steps he has taken so far. However, the other thing that helped Qais Saeed is the persistence of divisions and disagreements within the ranks of the political opposition and the movement of professional unions that practice evasion. Sometimes you find her denouncing and then immediately after that she swears that she cannot support a return to the political system that existed before the coup. Everyone, from secularists to Islamists, now recognizes Anqis Said as a real and grave danger, but they are still as far from supporting each other as they did against the dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. As for the third factor, it is the reluctance of the international community, from the United States to Europe, to intervene, even though they have come up with appropriate statements commenting on what is happening. An unhappy ending, said Chris Murphy, the only US senator to have met Kais Saied: “President Saied's claims that he is committed to returning his country to a democratic path has become impossible to believe... President Saïd has pledged to reform his country's economy and root out corruption, which are admirable goals that the Tunisian people have always demanded. But it will not be possible to He can do this successfully without financial support from the international community, and we have to make sure that the support is linked to reforms that bring the country back to the democratic path." However, they are reluctant to believe those words with deeds. There is no one in Washington who describes what Said did in Tunisia as a "coup," and perhaps some of them secretly gave him reassurances, and this is the height of folly. As for France, it is in particular that it can decide whether Said stays or goes. There is no doubt that the complete economic collapse in Tunisia will result in hundreds of thousands of Tunisians rushing towards the Mediterranean in search of emigration. Meanwhile, Kais Saied's problems are escalating. Why did any of the Arab countries rush to his rescue by injecting the money he really needed? The Gulf states have proven time and time again that what they care most about is destabilizing weak or potential democracies, while reconstruction and nation-building are not their concern. Tunisia is simply nothing but a repetition of what Yemen, Sudan, Egypt and Syria witnessed. As Qais Saeed's problems escalate, his misery increases, and his end will not be happy.

(Middle East Eye)