Open source intelligence: a new era of transparent war on the horizon

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Special Report - (Economist) 2/19/2022

Translation: Aladdin Abu Zina

Earth orbit in the fourth day of February, one of the four satellites run by Maxar, a company based in Colorado, depicted more than 3 million square kilometers of the globe every day, pictures of a Russian camp in Richesa, Belarus..And in it, ranks of military vehicles arranged accurately over a thick rug of ice, less than 50 km from the border with Ukraine..On February 14, a brother's satellite took another picture of Richica.Snow had gone;Likewise, also, most vehicles (see attached photos) did.Since the beginning of the Cold War, America and its NATO allies have examined Russian military deployments and movements using expensive and strange means often to monitor the lands of others, such as industrial spy satellites and exploratory aircraft, in addition to human customers -means that no one can mobilizeelse.But civil monitors are increasingly own their own tools.Journalists, academics, thinkers, activists and amateur enthusiasts have access to a set of open source intelligence information, which have expanded largely over the past decade, and allowed them to reach their own conclusions about what the armed forces in the world are doing.Pictures and other data of commercial satellites, videos published on social media, ship tracking sites, aircraft and other sources available to the public can, if they are mysterious at times, reveal events taking place in places that cannotAlmost the actual time.The Russian military mobilization on the borders of Ukraine presents a prominent display of the capabilities provided by the open source intelligence now.This is partly due, as Stephen Wood, from "Maxar", notes that satellites in the private sector have improved "dramatically"..The satellites that his company owns can take precise pictures enough to photograph small things up to 30 centimeters..The number of providers of this service also jumped sharply.(The Economist relied on the data of "Maxar" and "Planet", a company in California, to monitor the Russian crowd in recent weeks).But what was particularly strong in this crisis was to combine micro -satellite images in time and social media posts that flow from Russia.Take, for example, the state of the lost equipment and mechanisms in Reichsa.The satellite images do not show where weapons and vehicles went, but they show that they are just gone.But there is other evidence.Russian drivers are characterized by being thirsty for cameras installed on the dashboard in their vehicles.In recent weeks, they have picked up a package of tanks and other equipment while moving on roads and railways.Many of these shots are loaded on "Tik-Talk", a Chinese application through which users can publish short videos (the pictures of tanks that move across Russian border lands are accompanied by noisy music).One of these videos, which was downloaded on February 13, shows a convoy of armored vehicles, including the "Shelka" anti -aircraft vehicles, on a road that stretches on the southeast of the town of Mazir to Narulia.Two days later, an open source information analyst, who is tweeting under the name "Dansebion", noticed that a slogan on "Shelka" vehicles, despite its lack of clarity, indicates that the vehicles belong to the Russian Fifth Tank Brigade -one of the units that were previously seen as they reach toRichesa.A quick look at the map shows that Mazer and Narolia are located in the far south, closer to the Ukrainian border.In other phrases, it appears that some units that left Reichtasa, at least, were not transferred to their original bases, but rather to more threatening sites.This is commensurate with the statement of Ben Wallet, the British Minister of Defense, who said that the Russian forces are moving from "control areas" to "front deployment areas".Usually it is formed, and it is a base 125 km from Russia's borders with Belarus, the home of the IVI group..In November of last year, it began to be filled with equipment from the "Joint Arms Army 41", a group that usually includes several difference and is stationed more than 3.000 km in Siberia.By late January, it was not only crowded with shields, but also with soldiers: satellite pictures showed that heating led to dissolving snow on the roofs, and that the feet in the military shoes turned the surrounding land into muddy clay.Then some moved from these.Initially, it was difficult to see this because Yellain, like most parts of Europe at this time of the year, was often covered with clouds.But neither clouds nor darkness is a problem for radar satellites with an synthetic aperture (SAR) that illuminates what you look at the radio waves.Sentinel -1 SAR satellites, which is run by the European Space Agency, take pictures of each spot on the continent every six days.Usually, the pictures produced by loved and less accurate than those taken using visible wavelengths such as "Maxar" and "Planet".But some human -made structures reflect radar waves well.The photos taken by the satellites of "Sennil -1" showed from January 23 to February 11 with a loud sea of purple points -the pictures of the colored radar were reflected from the equipment -which were fading with the emptying of the forces.Where did the equipment and cadres of the "Joint Arms Army 41" go?Once again, perhaps in the direction of the Ukrainian border.One of the clips published on "Tik-Tuk" showed armored vehicles at a railway station in Brynsk, about 35 km from Ukraine.The reference referral of a number consisting of eight numbers written on the train to a website that tracks railway movements showed that the train comes originally - as you must have guessed - whoever is clear.In recent days, the Russian army has moved the equipment at a frenzied pace, perhaps to give the appearance of the withdrawal -which is an order that the Russian Ministry of Defense said was on February 14).Michael Kaufman from CNA, an American intellectual institution, calls this maneuver the name of the "missile deployment" game that is carried out by the units in the region in a confusing manner "without changing the general image".Kaufman says that some forces leave the Crimea, but more of them reach other places along the border.The Russians are now doing the same thing that armies usually do before wars.On February fourteenth, another analyst observed the low -precision satellite data that had occurred on the banks of the Prix in Belarus, less than 6 kilometers from the Ukrainian border..And that, as he thought, was a preliminary work to build a bridge.Pictures published on February 15 showed that there is a crossing that appeared in the area.(This was not a complete shock -A mysterious press release announced on February 11 that there is a bridge crossing over the River of the Barbiyat, although it did not mention when or where).Then on February 16, satellites (Sar) indicated that the bridge had been removed.Perhaps this was only a military exercise.Good open sources intelligence requires continuous search for these types of hints -and to know the places that should be discussed.One of the answers is the use of a practice known as "speculation and confirmation": where the clues taken from one of the sensors, which are usually unclear and less accurate, are used to direct a more clear device that can see what the intended thing was..It is often predicted using low -resolution satellite images - which are cheaper and more abundant than satellites with high -resolution images - but there are more creative ways to do so as well.In recent years, analysts have noticed that some types of strong military radars can confuse satellite radars, "Sennal-1", which results in monitoring a distinctive interference pattern in their returns..Oli Balinger, a lecturer at the University of College London, built a tool called "Radar Interference Tracker", which allows any party to search for such interference.In September, the tool discovered a possibility that it comes from Bogonovo, a major Russian base close to the Ukrainian border, and this discovery suggested the possibility of air defense systems there.Despite all the insight provided by open sources intelligence, it is in no way a magic solution.Satellite may provide unprecedented satellites, but they can photograph a lot of things in just one day -and the data is still rare..Intelligence analysts have always known that the upper images, although they are very useful, can never show everything.They also know that the amount that it actually shows can be a magician -it looks material and tangible in a deceptive way that can mislead the inexperienced..The modern armed forces estimate the role that open intelligence sources started playing in crises, and they can take advantage of this in their favor.For example, the army may deliberately show a convoy of tanks that go in the opposite direction of its intended destination, knowing that the "Tik-Talk" footage caused by anatomy and dismantling by researchers.The signals of the site can be imitated by the ships and placed miles from their real sites.Conrad Mozica, of the "Roshan Consulting Foundation", whose research was the basic research of the maps of the "Economist" magazine for Russian spread: "It seems that people believe that open source intelligence will provide them with the full range of development.But I do not mix with any delusions.We are watching just a simple part of what is really happening. ”.However, seeing this part, and seeing it by means that does not depend on the words and whims of governments, is a radical exit on the crises of the past.And if the war reaches Europe, it will be transparent this time as it was not ever.

*This report was published under the title: Osint: A New Era of Transparent Warfare Beckons