Hezbollah's behavior and the pursuit of Salameh make the Lebanon crisis more difficult

The seventeenth anniversary of the assassination of the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri this year had a different impact. It took place on February 14 (February), not only in light of the continuing repercussions of the crime on the Lebanese political scene, but because it was an occasion that came less than three weeks after his son and political heir, the leader of the Future Movement, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, announced the suspension of his political work and his political movement. The angle of participation in Parliament and the government in the next stage.

While the commemoration of the past years turned into an important political station in which Hariri or some of his allies sometimes announced important political positions in the context of the ongoing political conflict in Lebanon since the assassination of Hariri the father, this year it came silently, and was limited to the son’s recitation of the “Fatiha” on The tomb of his father, with his aunt and uncle, without words or political speeches.

Popular sympathy at the shrine

Although part of the Lebanese political community and some media saw Hariri’s reluctance to run in the parliamentary elections with members of his current as an announcement of his retirement from political work, the crowds of “Al-Mustaqbal” supporters on the anniversary, which accompanied him at the shrine, turned it into a kind of popular solidarity. With his leadership and the renewal of allegiance to him, it was an indication that the "suspension" of his participation in political work is for a time determined by circumstances and not a complete withdrawal from political life. Politicians among Hariri's allies said that the presence of thousands of his supporters at the shrine, who chanted loyalty to him, indicates that he is the most capable, after "Hezbollah", whose leadership attracts a degree of the public that gathers around him despite the harsh economic conditions the Lebanese are going through. The supporters took the trouble of moving from the countryside to meet him, and they came from Tripoli, Akkar, the Bekaa, Sidon, the south and the mountain, in addition to the capital, Beirut. However, this does not cancel the fact that his step caused confusion and confusion in the electoral papers and left the Sunni community worried about a vacuum in the process of its representation in the constitutional institutions, among its symbols and the general public.

The country is getting more and more difficult

During his visit to Beirut, which lasted less than 48 hours, Hariri reiterated, in a quick meeting with "Mustaqbal" deputies, what he had previously announced in a statement reluctance to participate in his statement on January 24 last, confirming that none of them would run in the name of the movement and in its name, leaving the choice For those who want to run in the parliamentary elections, as well as for the public on the issue of voting, saying, “I will not impose anything on anyone, but I stand by my position not to support any candidate, and if someone uses the banner of the future to run in the elections, I will have to deny that.” Al-Hariri’s position is by a regulatory circular asking every member or affiliate of Al-Mustaqbal in the event of non-compliance with the directives of his president and his determination to participate in the elections as candidates “to submit a request for resignation in writing to the Regulatory Affairs Authority… and to refrain from any claim to represent the Future Movement or its project during any activity electoral".

However, Hariri, as quoted by some members of his bloc, advised MPs not to run because the situation in the country will continue to deteriorate and will be more difficult, ruling out that the ruling structure will be able to make progress in the rescue process. And whoever will be an MP will reap insults from the people in the next stage because they will not see an improvement in their living conditions. He considered it difficult to govern the country in the current structure, referring to President Michel Aoun's continuation of the presidency and Hezbollah's support for him. In a short chat with journalists who met him, he said, "May God help Najib Mikati on the big challenges." He made it clear that there is no way to find solutions to the crisis in which Lebanon is drowning with its current rulers. He pointed out that the Arab countries consider that there is no hope for the situation in Lebanon in the current circumstances.

Tips not to run

Hariri told his bloc’s deputies that he had advised former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who had made contacts with Mikati, former Prime Minister Tammam Salam and the Grand Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, under the title of finding a mechanism to recommend nominations for personalities who would fill the void left by Hariri’s and “the future” reluctance in the Sunni arena to Dispersion does not allow opponents to seize the opportunity, so that he does not run for office, because he does not expect anything new that would allow him to "perform any achievement that I could not do."

A leader in "Al-Mustaqbal" told "The Independent Arab" that the reason Hariri did not address the crowds that met him at his father's tomb is that everything he says will be given explanations and may be calculated as support for certain candidates or as directed against a particular group, which contradicts his decision. The "suspension of political action", behind which he wants to step aside and monitor matters in order to build on the required thing later. He echoed the statement that the Future Movement would keep in touch with the people and its audience in forms that would be determined later, but it was not agreed that this would take place before or after the elections. Al-Hariri prefers "watching", in order to decide his direction regarding the activity of his organization, and based on it to establish his political orientations in light of the political equation in the new parliament (4-year term), and the power practices that will emerge from it.

When asked by some of those he met about his suffering in power during the last stage, Hariri replied, "My suffering is a drop in the ocean of what the Lebanese are suffering in light of the ongoing collapse."

Continuing rivalries and delaying reforms

Why did Hariri expect the situation in the country to be more difficult in the next stage?

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A veteran politician answers this question that the problem after Hariri's reluctance is not related to the Sunni sect, but to the country as a whole. And at a time when priority is for a rescue plan from the tragic situation in which the living conditions in Lebanon have reached, it does not seem that governance practices will change, as evidenced by the continuation of the crisis management approach through a policy of petty rivalries and quotas in state positions. This is what happened in the last two sessions of the Council of Ministers, when appointments in the military establishment were smuggled at the insistence of President Aoun, which angered the Shiite duo’s ministers who renounced their requirement to implement their demands to stop their boycott of government sessions that suspended its meetings for three months, as part of an agreement with Mikati not to propose Any appointments to the Council of Ministers, so that they are not used in the context of election campaigns 3 months before the polling date.

This approach was enshrined in the method of approving the 2022 budget, which is subject to opposition from party deputies who refuse to include an increase in fees for citizens, at a time when the ministers of those parties approved it during government meetings.

Still, the denial of the need for structural reforms in order to launch negotiations with the International Monetary Fund depends on the agreement with which the country obtains aid that will pull its money out of the hole it is in. The ruling group refrains from implementing a chronic international demand to appoint the authority that regulates electricity, communications and civil aviation in order to ensure its advancement.

The "Future" debate with the presidency and the issue of safety

The veteran politician, who is sympathetic to the future president's move, refers to the battle between President Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement and the Governor of the Banque du Liban, Riad Salameh, through the judiciary, with the aim of removing him from his position. This is his demand for more than a year, which Hariri previously rejected, and Mikati refused to respond to it and tried to delay it. At a time when Aoun Salameh is accused of being responsible for smuggling money to some concubines, and he invokes the existence of lawsuits against him in a number of European countries, opponents of the presidency and some media confirm that they are lawsuits by the team of the head of the "Free Movement", Representative Gibran Bassil in these countries, some of which were closed due to the absence of any Evidence, and judicial authorities in some of them requested information about Salameh’s property and assets in order to verify the facts of the claim. This was used to justify his prosecution by a judicial body loyal to the presidency (Judge Ghada Aoun), in order to justify his dismissal. The political center repeats that the dismissal of Salama is a prerequisite that the President of the Republic presented to Hariri when he was assigned to form a government in 2020, and he reiterated it to Mikati when he formed the government last summer. But the scandal was when Judge Aoun issued a subpoena against Salama after banning him from travel, and assigned his leadership to the calculated state security apparatus over the presidency in the context of distributing the loyalties of security sites to implement it, while the Internal Security Forces, whose leadership is loyal to Hariri, are responsible for securing protection for Salameh, and that a dispute arose Among the officers of the two agencies when State Security went to two houses owned by the ruler, and to his office in the Banque du Liban, to forcibly bring him on February 15 to Judge Aoun's office, but he was not present in any of them.

This necessitated the issuance of a statement by the "Future Movement" that warned "all the Lebanese that persecuting the ruler and raiding his homes and office in the Banque du Liban is a step in the path of collapse and not a step in the illusions of a solution and the fight against corruption." He considered that the decision to raid and arrest was taken in the Republican Palace at the direct request of President Aoun personally to the head of the State Security Agency, Major General Tony Saliba, and that the date of the raid was known a week ago, and it was circulated on social media by Aoun activists. "The Free Patriotic Movement" and justifying the failure to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund, accusing Aoun of seeking a clash between the two security agencies, the Presidency's Information Office responded, considering that what was stated in the "Mustaqbal" statement of words attributed to the President of the Republic is an absolute lie and baseless. It is part of the fabrications that the Future Movement has been distributing.

Hezbollah's sponsorship of Gulf opposition activity

In enumerating what explains Hariri’s words about his despair at the possibility of changing the ruling group’s approach, some circles sympathetic to the leader of the “future” enumerate facts that support his point of view, leading to the question of how the ruling team can rely on the ruling team’s declaration of its keenness on the best relations with the Arab Gulf states and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In the context of seeking to address the crisis erupting with it, the severity of which reached more than four months ago the degree to which 4 countries withdrew their ambassadors and asked the ambassadors of Lebanon to leave it. After "Hezbollah" organized an anti-Saudi media activity last month, despite the Ministry of Interior's refusal to do so, the party organized a similar activity for the Bahraini opposition Al-Wefaq Society. When the Ministry of Interior asked a restaurant (Al Saha) in the southern suburb of Beirut to cancel this activity, it was moved to another hall (Al Resalat) in the suburb as well, where the seminar was held by force about the ministry's warning.

The party challenged two books issued by Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi (published in newspapers), after coordinating with President Mikati, asking the Internal Security Forces and the General Directorate of Public Security to “inform the hall management not to hold the two activities because they did not obtain legal permissions… for what might result in the event of The two activities obstructed the official efforts made by the Lebanese state to strengthen relations with the Arab Gulf states, in light of the Kuwaiti initiative in which the state committed itself to taking measures that prevent verbal or actual exposure to the sister Arab states. However, "Hezbollah" insisted on holding the symposium, and it was attended by the Vice-President of the Political Council, former Minister Mahmoud Qamati. Party sources were quoted as saying that the authority violates the principle of freedom of opinion in Lebanon. Then Minister Mawlawi only said that he would implement the law, at a time when his request was not granted.

It was clear that the party responded with these activities to the Gulf initiative that was carried by the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister, Sheikh Ahmed Al-Mohammed Nasser Al-Sabah on January 22nd, and it included 12 items to address the Gulf crisis with Lebanon, and the Lebanese authorities responded by committing to the best relations with the Gulf states. Politicians remind that President Aoun is an ally of "Hezbollah", and his political current will run in the elections in alliance with him, and depends on the votes of his voters to ensure the victory of his candidates in several electoral districts, and secures the official cover for his positions, despite some circumstantial differences that arise between the two allies.

And the political circles ask: How can any progress be made in addressing the political-economic predicament that afflicted Lebanon, in light of these and other facts?